Forex » Economic data to watch this week

Events and economic data to follow this week

On Wednesday this week, forex traders gathered at the FOMC meeting and the Jewish BOE meeting. Both central banks are expecting high rates.

This Monday will be the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II. Therefore, the UK will be on a public holiday and UK markets will be closed. On Wednesday, the FOMC will meet to decide whether the Committee will raise the rate in the United States by 75 basis points or 100 basis points. Although 75 basis points are present, in recent weeks stronger than expected US CPI data has raised some eyebrows among Fed watchers. Also, the BOE will meet on Thursday to decide how much it should raise are you rating? Initial focus was on a 75bps hike, more over the last one attention was on a 50bps hike. Also note that the FTSE afterglow will take place this week. It was supposed to take place on Monday, but due to the public holiday, it was moved to Tuesday.

Bank of England

The Bank of England’s interest rate decision meeting was due to take place last week. However, due to the death of Queen Elizabeth, the meeting has been rescheduled for this Thursday. The BOE unveiled these 50 basis point taxes for the year’s meeting to raise direct taxes to 1.75%. At the time, the BOE predicted that inflation would fall to 13.3% in October and that it would rest again for much of 2023. In other words, the central bank predicted that it would come into recession in the fourth quarter of 2022. The markets are immediately turned to prices. in a 75 ps rate hike at the September meeting. However, last week the UK released CPI data which showed that inflation rose from 10.1% YoY in July to 9.9% YoY in August. Plus, in light of the recent rise in energy prices, the name of the economists who are dealing with it now, as inflation is lower than the 13.3% estimated in October. The BOE will provide an update this week. As for the economy, retail sales are considerably slower in August. The title fell from +0.4% in July to -1.6% in August. Attention is -0.5%. Ex-Fuel printing fell by the same amount. Markets are now leaning towards a 50bp rise for the BOE this week.

federal reserve

The FOMC is due to meet on Wednesday this week at the September interest rate decision meeting. The FOMC is expected to raise the rate by 75 basis points. Last week’s August CPI reading came in at 8.3% YoY versus the expected 8.1% YoY and a previous reading of 8.5% YoY. Although children are doing better than expected, it is the underlying inflation rate that is grabbing the markets’ attention. Core CPI for the month of the year is 6.3% YoY versus a forecast of 6.1% YoY and a previous reading of 5.9% YoY. Not only did it feel like it exceeded expectations, but it was higher than the July reading. This has my mind set on a 100 basis point rate hike for this week. At one point I coated after the CPI’s release, the attentions of a 100 basis point increase soared to almost 50%. However, a cool head appears to be prevailing as markets are no longer pricing in a 16% chance of a 100bp rate hike (meaning they are also marching past an 82% chance of a rate hike as well). of 75 basis points). Job seekers continue to impress, with the NFP for the year at 315,000 and US first job applications falling for the 5th consecutive week to 213,000 for the week ending September 10.

FTSE Remnant

It’s quarter time: time for the FTSE renewal. The reshuffle will take place on Tuesday due to the Monday public holiday, but will be effective as of Monday. The FTSE reshuffle comes as the FTSE Russell calculates the valuations of UK companies to decide which stocks should be placed in which index. Abrdbn, Hikma and Howden are all leaving the FTSE 100.

Business results

FedEx will surprise markets after Thursday’s close by cutting its scammers for fiscal 2023, making stock markets appear on fear of a pullback. There are a few companies to watch this week. Will they also drop the tips? Here are some important revenue reports to watch this week: COST, ACN, HLN, CINE, KGF, GIS, LEN, DRI.

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Economic data and other central banks

Last week, the markets got a big surprise with stronger than expected CPI data in the United States. This week, will we be disappointed to see more surprises? The obvious focus of the week will be Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and Thursday’s BOE meeting. However, there are other central banks to watch this week as well. These include the Riksbank, BOJ, SNB, Norges Bank and SARB. Any surprise on the part of these central banks could cause it to be foreseen in their respective apparatuses. In addition, Australia released the minutes of the last meeting, Canada released the August CPI and Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI which were released. Other major economic releases this week include:

Monday – September 19, 2022

Canada: IPP (Fall)
United States: NAHB housing market index (SEP)
Japan: CPI (AUG)
Australia: RBA meeting minutes

Tuesday – September 20, 2022

Germany: PPI (AUG)
Sweden: Riksbank rate decision
Canada: CPI (Fall)
United States: Building permit (AUG)
United States: Housing starts (AUG)

Wednesday – September 21, 2022

United Royal: CBI Industrial Trends Orders (SEP)
United States: Existing Home Sales (AUG)
United States: FOMC decision on interest rates
Crude inventories
New Zealand: trade balance (AUG)
Japan: BOJ decision on interest rate

Thursday – September 22, 2022

Switzerland: SNB decision on interest rate
Norway: Decision on Norges Bank’s interest rate
Mexico: Mid-Month Inflation Rate (SEP)
United Kingdom: BOE decision on the interest rate
United States: current account (T2)
South Africa: SARB decision on interest rate
EU: Flash on consumer confidence (SEP)
United States: Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (SEP)
World: World manufacturing and services (SEP) PMI flash
New Zealand: Westpac Consumer Confidence (Q3)

Friday – September 23, 2022

UK: GfK Consumer Confidence (SEP)
United Kingdom: CBI Retail Trades (SEP)
Canada: Retail Sales (July)

See » Economic Calendar

Chart of the week » Gold (XAU/USD) weekly

Source: Tradingview, Pierre X

You gold price (XAU/USD) had hit a local low during the week of August 13, 2018 at 1160.25. Over the next 2 years, the precious metal rose aggressively and in August 2020, gold set a new all-time high at 2075.11! The price then retreated and tested previous lows near 1670. However, the price started to rise and during the week of March 7, 2022 it tested previous all-time highs and failed, forming a star formation evening over the weekly period. Since then gold has moved lower in a descending channel. Last week, the precious metal tested the 1670 level again, only to break it and make an intra-week low at 1654.25! Breaking the 1670 level (the cleavage) has a double sleep pattern in me over a weekly period. The ability to sink a double top is the height of the double top at the neckline, added to the breaking point of the neckline. In this case, the target is near 1275, just above the April 2019 support. However, if the price is to reach its target, gold must first break through the 50% retracement level of the August 2013 low to August 2020 highs at 1617.68. Below, the price may fall to support the lower trendline of the descending channel near 1565, due to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for reference to the previously mentioned time frame. However, if the breakout of the 1670 level turns out to be a false breakout, first resistance is at the week’s highs at 1735.21, then the week’s highs of August 8 at 1807.91. Above, gold may reach the highs of the week of June 13 at 1879.16.

This week, the markets have focused on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and Thursday’s BOE meeting. Both central banks are expecting high rates. However, both could surprise markets and forex traders by climbing higher than expected. On the other hand, the eventual volatility watch is driving this week’s earnings releases, even though it’s economic data from around the world. Also keep an eye on the spot gold price to see if it can trade below 1670 and stay there. If so, the price of gold could experience a big drop!

By Joe Perry, CMT, » Official Site

Forex » Economic data to watch this week

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the report are provided for general information only and do not constitute an offer or a solicitation concerning the sale or sale of foreign exchange contracts or CFDs. Although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, the author does not guarantee its accuracy and is not exhaustive, and assumes no liability for direct, indirect or consequential damages resulting from than anyone he trusts such information.

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