Key points of the article:
- The inflation figure does not change the game
- The euro against the dollar remains fragile under 1.1383
The inflation figure does not change the game
The rate of consumer price inflation in the United States reached 6.8% year-on-year in November, the highest rate since June 1982, in line with market expectations. Inflation remained above the US Fed’s 2% target for the ninth consecutive month, due to strong consumer demand, rising commodity prices, and related supply constraints. to the pandemic and a low base effect from last year.
Even if this figure was widely anticipated, it remains very high and should not call into question the less accommodating policy of the Fed. The idea of a transitory price increase is definitely abandoned with the increase in demand and not just the difficulties over supply.
In contrast, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index rose sharply to 70.4 against a consensus of 67.1.
The next meeting in mid-December will be very well attended, with a doubling of the amount of asset buybacks.
Inflation rate in the United States year-on-year:
The euro against the dollar remains fragile under 1.1383
The euro against the dollar has been evolving in a phase of consolidation for a few sessions under resistance at 1.1383. A crossing of this obstacle would allow the euro against the dollar to free itself from its selling pressure and to join a node constituted by a line of polarity and the passage of the bearish slant above 1.1500.
However, as long as the pair remains below 1.1383, the risk is to see a resumption of the decline towards the 1.1170 / 85 area, the low of November and the low of June 2020. Below this level, the decline would accelerate towards the psychological level of 1.1000.
Evolution of the euro against the dollar in daily data:
